EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA

Abstract

This study investigated the impact of export diversification on economic growth in Nigeria.  Following an extensive review of theoretical and empirical literature, the study estimated an ARDL model with GDP growth as the dependent variable, while Export concentration (Theil index), Trade openness (TOP), Exchange rate (EXCH), Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), GDP Per capita (GDPPC) and Human development Index(HDI) as the independent variables. Annual time series data ranging from 1981- 2022 of the chosen variables were employed in the analysis. The study established that while export diversification promotes growth in the long run, it has positive impact on the lagged period in the short run. Finally, the study found the existence of a unidirectional causality from economic growth to export diversification. Amongst, others the study recommended the implementation of policies and programmes that support the diversification of the economy. This will involve a clearly articulated plan aimed at attracting local and foreign private sector investment in labor-intensive sectors such as the agricultural value chain, manufacturing, small and medium scale enterprises and other real sector activities that will fast track the diversification of the economy and improve inclusive economic growth.